Hye-Seong Kim Will Exceed MLB Expectations - Asian Baseballers

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Thursday, December 5, 2024

Hye-Seong Kim Will Exceed MLB Expectations



Hye-Seong Kim with the Kiwoom Heroes




Hye-Seong Kim is one of the best defensive second basemen in the world. He is the only player in the KBO to win Gold Gloves both as a second baseman and shortstop.The Kiwoom Heroes posted him for consideration on Wednesday, December 4th. 

 




The posting system operates by allowing teams to bid for the opportunity to negotiate a contract with the player. Then, the team has 30 days to agree to the terms of a potential contract. It is expected that Kim will land a contract in the mid-twenty million dollar range, although he is far more valuable than that. He is prized for his defensive prowess, although it is to be expected that his .304 average in eight seasons will probably not carry over at the same level. His 16.3% strikeout rate over more than 3,800 plate appearances is likely to increase as well. That’s okay, and it is expected because KBO pitching is just not as elite as MLB pitching, despite having foreign pitchers who had once played in MLB, and despite having some MLB-ready domestic talent.


The Kiwoom Heroes percentage take depends roughly on the amount of Kim’s contract value. For a contract worth more than $25–50 million, the Heroes will receive over $5 million plus 17.5% of the contract’s worth.  For a contract worth more than $50 million, the team receives $9.275 million plus 15% of the contract's value.  If the contract value is less than 25 million, the team will only receive 20% of the signed contract's value. As you can see, the Heroes receive an outright bonus if the actual contract exceeds 25 million, and this bonus increases as the contract's value increases. In other words, ideally, his team benefits if the contract exceeds 25 million, which could very well be the case.



Hye-Seong Kim is still a better option for some teams despite all the upfront costs, not because he will command less cash to sign, but because of his superior defensive skills.


Kim can be a speedster when he commits himself. He had an all-time high of 46 stolen bases in 2021 and stole at least 20 in the last seven seasons. A left-handed hitter, he hit .326/.383/.458 while going yard 11 times, completing 30 steals, and lowering his K% to below 11% in 2024.


What to expect?


It is unlikely Kim will be hitting .326/.383/.458 at the major league level. It will be very surprising if he does, but it is not far-fetched he could be hitting. 270/.350/.410. These are more realistic numbers because of his improved plate discipline in the last couple of years, depending on how he adjusts, that is.


In MLB, Kim will not hit many balls out of the park. He is a contact hitter who relies on his speed to reach bases. It is, however, very possible that he could hit over 10 home runs if he ends up with the Yankees.


Why a team can benefit from signing him


Quite simply, a top-notch shortstop/second baseman doesn’t come around this often for this kind of asking price. Even at the MLB level, finding a Gold Glove infielder at less than 50 million for 4-5 years with tremendous potential at only 25 years old is rare. He’s MLB-ready, and I expect him to exceed expectations.




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