The Japanese MLB free agency frenzy

Japanese Audio Above. English Below.

 

 The Japanese free agency market is very strange. All three, except for Kona Takahashi, Kazuma Okamoto, Tatsuya Imai, and Munetaka Murakami, were all signed nearly at their deadline, at undervalued estimates. 

 

Tatsuya Imai's potential is greater than you think

Tatsuya Imai is signed with the Houston Astros for 3 years and $63 million, with a guarantee of $54 million. This amount was significantly lower than the initial estimates of over $100 million. He may have signed the contract to make it easier to earn more money, as he can leave after the 2026 season. He also has the option of staying in Houston. He was determined to defeat the Dodgers, so choosing the Astros would be the ideal team to provoke them. To him, there would be nothing more satisfying than pitching against the Dodgers in the World Series. This is contingent upon both teams reaching the World Series.

Many teams are going to regret this, including the Yankees and Mets, who will eventually have to pay him double, if not triple, for his services. Imai, 27, was way undervalued for the reason that he had not reached his peak. Over the last three years, he transformed from a mediocre pitcher into an outstanding one, posting an ERA of 2.2 during this period, which includes a noteworthy 2025 season where he achieved a 1.92 ERA. He possesses four pitches, including excellent fastballs and sliders, in addition to a change-up and splitter, which are designed to disrupt hitters' rhythms. His ¾ arm angle delivery makes his fastball and sliders deceptive, which will be a problem for right- and left-handed hitters who aren't used to that angle.

 

Kazuma Okamoto is ready for the MLB

 

 

Kazuma Okamoto is 50 million dollars undervalued, as he is ready to go and ready to help any team win a championship. He exemplifies consistency. He nearly strikes out, posting an 11% strikeout rate, can hit for power, and walks more than the average player. In 11 seasons, he hit .277/.361/.722. He was an annual 30-homer guy in Japan and has a constant, disciplined approach, which makes him the ideal player to succeed at the major-league level. 

Of all the teams expected to sign him, Toronto seemed the obvious choice to land him, as they reached the World Series in 2025, two outs away from the championship. It makes one wonder: what if Okamoto had batted instead of Kirk in the last inning? Okamoto’s 30% ground ball rate, compared to Alejandro Kirk’s 44% ground ball rate, could have made a difference in that final out. In other words, Okamoto has a higher probability of hitting a ball in the air than Kirk. Kazuma’s 43.1% fly ball rate and 24.3% line drive rate position him to be more likely to at least hit a fly ball. Scouts would all agree that a 43.1% fly ball rate is elite, as the MLB average is 35.5%. This sets Okamoto up for success in MLB, despite the expected slight increase in his ground ball rate to 3-5%.



In 2025, with a limited number of games played of 69 due to elbow injury, Okamoto managed to rake in 15 homers, 21 doubles, a record 49 RBIs, and score 38 runs in only 293 plate appearances, finishing at .327/.416/.598 with an OPS of 1.014. While those numbers may not fully transition to MLB, a slash line of .280/.375/.500 would be elite by any standard. These adjusted numbers would be more indicative of his rookie season. It's quite unusual to label him as a rookie at this point in his career. While he is a more polished player, the next player has an even higher ceiling.

Munetaka Murakami is a gem waiting to be unleashed

 

Munetaka Murakami was at one point expected to sign for $200 million. Instead, he settled for $34 million with the White Sox, one of the worst teams in recent years. Considering what he had accomplished in the past: 2021-2022 MVP, four all-star selections, triple crown in 2022, record-breaking 56 homers in the same year, and winning the NPB championship in 2021, his evaluation has gone down significantly. 

While past performances may not predict future outcomes, the rule may not apply to Munetaka Murakami. With the utmost care, we have to consider that there could have been a reason for his sudden decline, mainly the sudden change in his hitting stance, his elbow injury, and his oblique injury. We know that after the 2024 season, Murakami underwent surgery to correct an elbow issue, which suggests that this issue may have contributed to his decision to change his swing during the 2024 season.

Low Z-Contact% adds to concerns

There are a couple of troubling aspects to Murakami’s game. Even by NPB standards, Murakami has a high strikeout rate of over 27%. His percentage could increase substantially against MLB pitching, potentially reaching 33-35%, which are inflated numbers. He has trouble with high-quality breaking and off-speed pitches. The most concerning data about his game is his Z-Contact% at 73-73.4%. This figure is 10% lower than the MLB average, where the average is 82-83%. Earlier in his career, his contact rate was 79%. In perspective, a Z-Contact% of below 82% is very concerning, considering that MLB pitching is heavy on fastballs and breaking balls.

Concerns on the defensive end

Murakami provides almost no value defensively. Though listed as a third baseman, his defensive metric of -48 DRS (the measure of the number of runs a player costs or saves a team on the defensive end in relation to the average player), or Defensive Runs Saved, is unacceptable and could mean he will not be suitable at that position in the majors.

The great aspects of Murakami’s game 

As a left-handed hitter, he boasts a bat speed of 86 mph, which is elite even at the MLB level, has a 96.5% hard-hit rate, and has a max exit velocity of 116.5 mph on hitting balls, which would be considered elite even by MLB standards. 

Many worry about his high strikeout rate; however, his high walk rate of 16.2% in his career, dipping to 14–15% in recent years, recorded 614 walks in 3,780 plate appearances while finishing his NPB career with an OBP of .394. By any standard, those numbers are considered elite. His career-best on-base percentage was .458 in 2022, during his second MVP season, which was significantly higher than his previous high of .408 in 2021. These numbers border on being downright ridiculous. The power will translate, the plate discipline will translate, and walks will translate to MLB. His success in MLB will solely depend on how he improves his Z-Contact%. The goal for him is to increase the percentage to 3–5%. It will be difficult to achieve, considering the amount of breaking balls and fastballs he will face in MLB, but he is young and has time to grow. 

In all, Murakami’s potential depends solely on himself. He has the raw power, plate discipline, and youth to achieve greatness. He must not doubt himself. It will be fascinating to monitor his progress in 2026.